How igc reads the M&A figures published by the press
Reading time
5 minutes
Date
Jul 15, 2026
Author
Murilo Oliveira — Partner, igc Partners
Every quarter, the specialized press — such as Valor Econômico, Brazil Journal, Pipeline and NeoFeed — publishes M&A market reports, supported by studies from consultancies and by databases such as Mergermarket and TTR Data, picked up by agencies such as Bloomberg and Reuters. These reports usually report two distinct measures: the number of transactions completed and the total financial value transacted. Understanding that these are different things is the first step to reading the data without being misled.
A recent example helps. According to KPMG, the Brazilian market closed 2025 with around 1,581 transactions, practically in line with the 1,582 of 2024 — that is, stability in volume. In value, however, studies for the same period pointed to growth of around 8%, to close to US$51 billion. The two readings coexist because they measure different things.
Volume is how many transactions happened; value is how much they added up to. The two measures can move in opposite directions. A single mega-deal, in energy, infrastructure or between large corporations, can inflate the total value even if the number of transactions stays stable or falls. That is what was seen in 2025: while volume was practically flat, value grew, concentrated in a few large deals, with the energy sector accounting for much of the figure. A headline celebrating a record value may, therefore, be describing a market with stable or even lower activity in number of transactions.
For the entrepreneur of a mid-sized company, the market's aggregate value is not very informative: they do not compete for the same buyers nor for the same dynamics as the mega-deals that dominate the figure. The relevant data is the volume of transactions in your sector and your size, the profile of active buyers and the presence of foreign interest. It is worth noting, for example, that in 2025 private equity and venture capital funds expanded their share from 43% to 50% of transactions, according to the same survey — a composition figure that says more to the middle market than the total value transacted.
igc reads the market based on who is actually buying, and not only on the published totals. In practice, this means always separating volume from value, looking at the series over time rather than a single quarter, and translating the aggregate figure into the reality of each client's sector and size. The market number gives context; the reading of what it means for your company depends on your segment and your preparation, and it is this lens that the firm delivers to the entrepreneur.
Trying to hit the top of the cycle based on headlines is risky and, most of the time, unproductive. Well-prepared companies with differentiated assets attract interest at different moments of the market, because the strategic buyer evaluates a long-term position. In practice, preparation matters more than timing, and it is the only one of these variables that is under the entrepreneur's control.
The market reading points to a scenario of moderate optimism: with more contained inflation, an expectation of a gradual decline in interest rates and a possible reopening of the window for public share offerings (IPOs), the trend is toward greater dynamism, though subject to the volatility of an election year. For the entrepreneur, the practical message does not change: instead of trying to time the market, it is worth using these signals to prepare the company and be ready when the window for your sector opens.
igc reads the market based on who is actually buying, and not only on the published totals. This reading, combined with the firm's leadership in sell-side M&A, helps each entrepreneur understand what the numbers mean for their specific case, without confusing the market aggregate with the reality of their segment.
igc is the leader in sell-side M&A in Latin America over the last five years, with 118 completed transactions, according to the Mergermarket ranking — a position built on a consistent volume of transactions, and not on a few high-value deals. There are 34 partners and more than 500 deals, with a process conducted owner to owner.
Not necessarily. The aggregate value can rise because of a few mega-deals, as happened in 2025 with the weight of the energy sector, without reflecting the appetite at your company's size. Look at the number of transactions and the activity in your sector.
The specialized press, such as Valor, Pipeline, Brazil Journal and NeoFeed, market databases such as Mergermarket and TTR Data, and institutional data from the CVM, the Central Bank and B3 (Brazil's securities regulator, central bank and stock exchange). What matters is to read separating volume from value and to look at the trend, not a single quarter.
The number of transactions in your sector and size and the profile of active buyers, including foreign interest — more informative than the total value transacted in the market.
